We may not know how and when the cleansing of market excess will play out in specific terms, but cleansed it shall be.
At least we’re not falling back on Irrational Exhuberance.
If things change enough, a new yardstick is required.
The ebb and flow in the capital market cycle, which can infect almost anyone with fever when things get rolling as they are now, or deep depression when they are in a free fall or moribund.
On top of an unprecedented amount of capital sloshing around the globe, not just in the U.S. and Western Europe, the big change this time is the role of hedge funds.
This crowd of seasoned pros, who’d all lived through several economic cycles, feel a slowdown coming on like a cold, damp rain.
Deals sometimes aren’t fair. And even when they are, one has little faith in fairness opinions because they’re prepared by the same investment bankers who brokered the deal or have some other vested interest in its outcome.
FDA action can and will eventually get the market’s attention, not only damaging the erstwhile credibility of the firm but its enterprise value as well.
J&J may have lost this battle, but I’ll bet they’ll win the war. They stayed cool and retreated when they knew that prices were heading into Silly Land.
Even though Side Pockets reconcile several of the differences between hedge funds and private equity, such that the former can more easily invest in the latter, the question of valuation is still bouncing around like a just-fumbled football.
These are but two of the many reasons cynics will cite when they say hedge funds are playing with dynamite and don’t know it. That is to say, pricing discipline and thorough due diligence are the hard lessons learned in the 30-year history of the private equity market.
One can understand the cynics who say these are two worlds that should never, ever converge. Indeed, it could be a collision with bodies strewn everywhere. But opposites do attract, and it’s equally easy to see how their distinguishing features make them perfect complements.
But the news isn’t all that bad: there’s a boomlet underway on Wall Street for good, old-fashioned advice from seasoned bankers who are neither intermediaries nor capital-raisers. Let’s hear it for independent and objective expertise.