The following letter which I wrote was published today in the CAPCO Institute Bulletin, in response to two previous bulletins regarding forecasting. The bulletin is a great read (my letter notwithstanding), and this now three-part dialogue takes us to the heart of information market territory.
* * *
19-Oct-2006
Forecasting – an alternative perspective
Peter J. Leitner, Founder/CEO, Numeria Management LLC
The most recent edition of the Capco Institute Bulletin asked if better forecasters will surface (October 11, 2006) after the previous one posited that forecasting as we know it may be poised for fundamental change (October 4, 2006). Yes, to both. The better forecasters that are emerging are neither highly-trained analysts nor artificial intelligence systems, but rather prediction markets, which are marketplaces of analysts and other participants whose opinions are reflected in asset prices that are tied to the forecasts themselves.
For example, if we need to know if U.S. inflation will exceed 5% a year from now, we can look at the current price of an instrument – a future, let’s say – that will pay off in twelve months if inflation indeed equals or exceeds 5%. Such instruments trade in prediction markets (known also as information – or decision – markets), which are dynamic and real-time forecasting engines that are quickly redefining how mission-critical decisions are made.
A prediction market can forecast external events, such as the rate of inflation, the likely winner of a presidential election, or the probability of a global flu pandemic, or internal events, like the chance a firm will hit its monthly operating profit target or the price it should pay for DRAM chips that it uses for raw material. And they are proving to be highly accurate, with greater than 80% accuracy (which does not seem like much, unless we consider the coin-toss alternative one gets with traditional forecasting methods).
Prediction markets harness market dynamics – and thus convey valuable information through prices and price changes – so that important forecasts can be made with extraordinary accuracy. They work because they comprise many participants, unfettered flows of information and liquidity, such that all known information about a particular asset is aggregated and disseminated. And while their forms vary, the most common prediction market resembles a futures market.
One of the first modern prediction markets is the Iowa Electronic Market, which was created by economics professors at the University of Iowa in 1988. As adherents to the efficient market hypothesis (that is, the price of a stock reflects all known information about a firm), the professors created a futures market to forecast national elections. Wisely, they structured the instruments not only so they pay off if a certain candidate wins, but to reflect the current probability one would win. In other words, the price of a future at any time before the election directly translates into the probability that the candidate will prevail (that is, a current price of $51.85 means there is a 51.85% probability). This produces valuable real-time information to be sure, and the Iowa market has proved more accurate than political surveys and polls.
Who in the corporate world uses prediction markets today? A who’s who list of large firms does, including Google, GE, HP, and Microsoft, to name a few. Some of them rely on specialists, such as News Futures and Consensus Point, to design and develop internal prediction markets, whereas others are rapidly developing there own capabilities. Individuals can use them as well, by becoming participants in external event markets themselves, through firms like HedgeStreet.
Prediction markets are not a panacea, however, at least not yet. They are still evolving and can, like other markets, potentially overshoot on the extreme ends of optimism and pessimism. And one segment of the prediction market space – online gaming, or gambling if you prefer – is demonstrating both the lucre and ire such markets can create. But prediction markets offer extraordinary opportunity as well, which the normally skeptical press like The Economist, Business Week, Business 2.0, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times find tantalizing. And ironically, prediction markets may be the best thing that could happen to forecasters themselves.
Our prediction market, which estimates the value of private firms and other illiquid corporate assets, provides independent analysts unprecedented intellectual freedom and professional challenge. Sure, they must still digest a lot of information and produce a formal forecast, but they then test their wits in a highly competitive marketplace of peers who all have skin in the game (as one analyst is fond of saying, “Nothing sharpens iron like iron”).
Prediction markets, therefore, minimize, if not eliminate, much of the error from imperfect objectivity and independence, as well as the professionally demoralizing task of generating forecasts to support broader mandates, like the investment banking department or the proprietary trading desk. And most important, their prices reveal the variation in opinion, and thus the potential error, that the users of forecasts otherwise cannot see.
Forecasts and forecasters are essential lubricants to the wheels of global commerce, and prediction markets may very well change them, all for the better.
* * *
Capco Institute is the research arm of Capco
Capco is the first services and technology solutions provider exclusively focused on forming the future of the financial markets. We unite thought leadership and practical application to improve profitability for our clients.
CONTACT:
Shahin Shojai Ph.D.
Editor - Capco Bulletin
editor@capco.com
Capco Institute
– Peter J. Leitner
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